Opposition leader María Machado returns from exile to a Venezuela reshaped by Trump

Driving down roads lined with jubilant supporters from the western state of Lara to the capital Caracas, Maria Corina Machado's return to Venezuela could hardly have been more different to her exit 10 months earlier.

Colourful, loud, open and defiant, it stood in stark contrast to the way the Venezuelan opposition leader slipped out of the country in the dead of night in December last year to receive the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo.

She had been unable to make it back to her homeland until now, thwarted on several occasions by the Venezuelan government - and by the Trump administration, which insisted the "time wasn't right" for her return.

Now, it appears, it is.

"Maria Corina is the indisputable leader of Venezuela," says 20-year-old Gregory Noriega, wearing a sweatshirt emblazoned with the logo of the opposition movement Vente Venezuela. "Her return represents hope."

"This is a step forward in the electoral process which we've been waiting for since last year," echoes 18-year-old Hilary, who turned out on to the streets of the capital hoping to catch a glimpse of the opposition leader on her victory lap.

"She's returned after the double earthquakes when Venezuela needs her," adds her friend, Manuel. "The whole country is behind her to show that now Venezuela isn't scared."

Much has changed since Machado left Venezuelan soil to receive the Nobel Peace Prize.

Then-President Nicolás Maduro is no longer at the top of the Venezuelan government.

Maduro was forcibly removed from power by US troops on 3 January, and whisked to New York where he faces drugs, weapons and torture charges – to which he's pleaded not guilty.

He was replaced by his former vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez, who has turned the page with Washington in ways few could have imagined.

The bilateral relationship is today unrecognisable from the years of mutual animosity during the reigns of President Hugo Chávez and then his handpicked successor, Maduro.

The new circumstances throw up some interesting conundrums for both sides.

When Machado left Venezuela, she had long been considered Washington's favoured alternative to Maduro. She returns to find the Trump administration perfectly happy with the one they've got – at least for the time being.

The Trump administration recently signed a major oil deal with Venezuela which gave the US a 100-year concession over a staggering 65bn barrels of Venezuelan crude oil.

The deal was reached in conjunction with a Venezuelan private company called North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) run by a businessman with a chequered past, Alejandro Betancourt.

Machado has openly criticised the deal which the Rodríguez government reached with the US, albeit careful to direct her criticism at Caracas and at Betancourt rather than President Trump, to whom she gave her peace prize and whose trust and support she craves to move forward.

President Trump has repeatedly said how satisfied he is with Delcy Rodríguez, calling her "wonderful" and "a terrific person". This was the vice-president of an administration he previously described as made up of "narco-communists".

But the outpouring of jubilation for Machado's caravan into the capital shows she can still count on significant support on the streets, says Venezuelan political analyst Beningno Alarcon.

"The return of Maria Corina Machado, in my personal view, is the most significant [political] event since 3rd January," says Alarcon. "It means the most important political leader in Venezuela is back in the country."

"The reception for her return shows that her ability to mobilise her support remains intact, which means the opposition in Venezuela now has something very solid: a leadership which is present on the ground as opposed to solely in exile," he says.

Alarcon provides some evidence that the opposition – and the public at large – feel more emboldened since 3 January, a situation he believes will become only more pronounced with Machado's reappearance.

For instance, a joint study by the political think tanks Polis and Nexo suggests that Venezuela saw three times as many street protests in the first nine months of this year as in all of 2025, with demonstrations spanning a range of issues, from politics and working conditions to water supply.

Furthermore, there's evidence that the repression of such protests has reduced by more than half.

In such an environment, the return of a figurehead like Machado can galvanise an electorate that has spent years fearful of the consequences of speaking out.

Her return also needs to be seen within the context of the wider talks brokered by Washington between the Venezuelan government and the opposition towards a negotiated political solution.

Certainly, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, was quick to say her "safe return" to Venezuela was "the direct result of the US-supported reconciliation talks".

The Nobel Peace Prize winner still faces charges in Venezuela ranging from treason to conspiracy of insurrection. For years, she and her supporters have dismissed the charges as politically motivated and baseless.

Having made at least eight attempts to return to Venezuela by air and by sea before the Trump administration gave her the green light, Machado now knows she has Trump's blessing to be back on home soil – a position Delcy Rodríguez is both unwilling and unlikely to challenge.

She called Machado's return a "show" and the entire cross-country event, which was livestreamed by her supporters over the weekend, was studiously ignored by state television outlets.

But Rodríguez, too, needs a harmonious relationship with Washington if she is to avoid a fate similar to that of her predecessor and indicated she might be prepared to hold talks with Machado.

For as much as Trump has complimented Rodríguez, he has also made it clear that Washington expects nothing less than her full submission and malleability on key issues like energy.

Some reports have even suggested all major decision-making in the oil-rich nation is being largely dictated by Secretary Rubio via regular WhatsApp calls to the interim president.

The young supporters gathered in droves in Caracas to cheer Maria Corina Machado home say their fears of criticising their government or demanding change are vanishing.

Her return marked an irreversible political transition in Venezuela, they insist, one which they could barely fathom when she left for Oslo just a year ago.

Additional reporting by Vanessa Silva in Caracas.