Will Scottish football finally agree on how to fix youth development?

When things go wrong in Scottish football, there's a running joke among supporters about what comes next: Another think tank, another summit, another grand plan.

The cynicism is understandable.

For more than 15 years, Scottish football has been openly and publicly asking itself what it could be doing better.

In particular, how it can produce more elite players and help the national team not just qualify for major tournaments, but compete at them.

Now, the game is preparing for another attempt.

On Friday, all 42 SPFL clubs will gather in St Andrews for what the Scottish FA describes as a "critically important" forum on the future of the national game.

Leading the discussion will be the governing body's new chief football officer, Craig Mulholland, whose brief is to shape and deliver Scottish football's long-term development strategy.

Top of the agenda is talent development - and there are few within the game who dispute that there is a problem.

Too few young Scottish players are making the grade at elite level in Scotland.

Too many find their path to first-team football blocked. And increasing numbers are leaving altogether.

These concerns are not new - the same issues have come up in four major reviews and in countless recommendations since 2010.

The challenge is agreeing on a solution.

One of the key concerns now is the lack of opportunities for young Scottish players at Premiership level.

At the start of the 2016-17 season, approximately 53% of players who started in the first round of Premiership fixtures were born in Scotland.

At the start of this season, that figure had fallen to 28%.

Compare that with Norway, where home-grown players accounted for around 73% of opening-day starters in 2016 and still made up approximately 72% at the start of the current campaign.

What that decline means for Scotland is open to debate.

Either Scottish football is producing fewer players capable of competing at Premiership level, or clubs have become increasingly reluctant to hand opportunities to those coming through their academies.

Former pro youth coach, Lloyd Gaffney believes the latter is a major factor.

Gaffney spent a decade working in academy football at Dundee and Dundee United before eventually leaving the game, in part due to frustrations at what he saw.

"There is a fear because clubs can't afford to get beat," he said.

"Managers don't want to lose their jobs and boards get nervous because if the team's not doing well, there are fewer bums on seats."

But if clubs won't provide an obvious first-team pathway, what is the point in having academies in the first place?

"That's exactly what I've been asking for years because there are hundreds and hundreds of kids and hundreds of parents buying into the dream," said Gaffney.

"Players might train with the first team when they're 18 or 19 and then that's it."

Increasingly, some of Scotland's brightest prospects are deciding not to wait around to find out.

This summer alone, Scotland under-16 internationals Kai Hutchison, Keir McMeekin and Boyd Fraser left Dundee United and Hearts for Everton, Manchester City and Nottingham Forest respectively.

Two of Celtic's most highly-rated academy talents, Erskine Rennie and Dara Jakiemi, have also headed south, joining Fulham and Liverpool.

A recent report by The Athletic found the number of teenage players moving from Scotland to England increased from 35 between 2012 and 2020 to 66 between 2020 and 2026.

Brexit has played a role.

Before the UK's departure from the European Union, English clubs were free to recruit under-18 players from across Europe.

With that route largely closed, many clubs have increasingly turned their attention to Scotland.

Former Celtic captain Scott Brown understands the attraction.

"It's hard because agents sign them up young, promise them the world and some of them will treble their money," he said.

"As a 16-year-old at a Liverpool or a Manchester City, you could be on money that almost sets you up for life."

But finances are only part of the equation.

One agent told BBC Scotland that English clubs can often offer a superior football education through better facilities, coaching, sports science and nutrition.

Former Rangers, Hearts, Motherwell and Livingston midfielder Andy Halliday believes Scottish clubs must do more to convince players to stay.

"If these players see a pathway to the first team, it'll make their decision to leave so much more difficult," he said.

He believes intervention may now be necessary, pointing to how clubs in England have to provide eight homegrown players when they submit a 25-man squad.

But as some look at ways to prevent more young players leaving, those who have left already say they have no regrets.

And many who leave are driven by a belief that England offers their best chance of fulfilling lifelong ambitions.

Seventeen-year-old Cole Hay was with Hamilton Academical since he was seven before making the switch to Sheffield United's academy.

"Ever since I was seven or eight, I wanted to play in England," he said.

"I just think there's such an attraction in playing against some of the biggest clubs and travelling all over the country.

"The facilities are incredible, so coming down just made sense. Ultimately I want to play in the Premier League, play Champions League football and play for my country."

Hay's view is echoed by many who have crossed the border. So what can Scotland do for those who want to stay?

Some believe the answer may lie overseas.

The Scottish FA's appointment of former Belgian international Sebastien Pocognoli as head coach of the national team has already demonstrated a willingness to look beyond its own borders.

Some within the game believe elements of Belgium's youth-development model could be worth exploring.

The Belgian approach places greater emphasis on technical development, small-sided games and individual decision-making at younger ages, with coaches encouraged to guide rather than instruct.

There is also greater patience with so-called "late developers", recognising that talented players do not all progress at the same speed.

Just as importantly, Belgian clubs operate with clearer pathways into senior football.

Under-23 sides compete within the professional pyramid, helping bridge the gap between academy and first-team football.

Scott Coyne of the Belgian Football Podcast believes that system gives young players more incentive to stay, but it requires "patience and a unified coaching philosophy across the game".

"Clubs have to treat academies as part of the core business, not side projects," he added.

Others believe different solutions are required.

Football analyst John Walker has suggested a financial reward system designed to incentivise clubs to play young players.

Under his proposal, clubs could receive payments ranging from hundreds of pounds per start in the Premiership down to smaller amounts further down the pyramid.

Walker argues the money could be reinvested in coaching, infrastructure and experienced players while still creating opportunities for young talent.

Former Hearts midfielder Ryan Stevenson would go further still.

He wants reserve league football reintroduced to bridge what many see as a crucial development gap between youth and first-team football.

At present there is no dedicated elite age-group competition for players aged 19 to 21 in Scotland.

Stevenson believes regular matches against experienced professionals, fringe first-team players and those returning from injury would better prepare young players for the demands of senior football.

Recent initiatives have attempted to address the issue.

Premiership clubs have entered B teams into competitions, introduced co-operation agreements and expanded loan arrangements.

Data suggests those measures have helped increase playing time for under-21 players below Premiership level.

One chief executive believes agents should be required to register with the Scottish FA before operating in Scotland, allowing greater scrutiny of approaches to players under the age of 16.

Others want the governing body to lobby Fifa for changes to the international compensation model.

The example often cited is Ben Doak.

Celtic received a modest development fee when the teenager joined Liverpool after only a handful of first-team appearances.

A few years later, Liverpool reportedly sold him for around £25m.

For many clubs, that highlights the growing imbalance in the market for young talent.

Whether the answer is quotas, incentives, reserve football, coaching reform, agent regulation or changes to compensation rules, Scottish football is unlikely to leave St Andrews united on every issue.

But there is growing agreement on one thing.

If Scotland is to continue qualifying for major tournaments and begin making deeper runs at them, the next generation and this summit matters.