Watford

If you're wondering where your team is going to finish in the Championship this season, you no longer need to worry.

Well, kind of.

Opta's supercomputer has worked its magic to figure out the most likely final league position of every team - and the chances each has of being promoted, making the play-offs or getting relegated.

Who is most likely to win automatic promotion?

It will come as no surprise that leaders Coventry are heavy favourites for the title (69.3%) and also have the highest chance of automatic promotion (84.2%) to the Premier League.

The next most likely to go straight up, with a 30.8% chance, are Middlesbrough. Despite currently sitting seventh and six points behind Boro in second, Ipswich are expected to be the third favourites for a top two finish (18.9%) followed by Stoke (14.1%).

Even though they've each enjoyed a strong start to the campaign, Preston (10.3%), Hull (6.1%) and Millwall (8.3%) have slimmer chances of finishing in an automatic promotion spot.

Who will make the play-offs?

Image source, Rex Features

Even if Coventry don't win automatic promotion, Opta's supercomputer has given the Sky Blues a 97.9% chance of a top-six finish, suggesting it's almost guaranteed.

Each of Middlesbrough, Ipswich, Preston and Stoke are expected to finish in a minimum of a play-off position at least one in two times.

Hull might feel the hardest done by as they sit fifth currently, but are said to have less chance (32.3%) than Millwall (38.8%) and Charton (32.4%), who are below them in the table.

The most likely of the chasing pack to make a surge up the table are 12th-placed Leicester City, who have been given a 31.8% chance of finishing in the top six and are more likely than Bristol City (28.9%), Derby (22.9%) and Birmingham (19.9%).

Last season's beaten play-off finalists Sheffield United have just a 1.8% chance of recovering their season to make the play-offs again, while relegated Premier League side Southampton (12.5%) aren't likely to either... if you trust the supercomputer!

Who is going down?

Image source, Rex Features

It's probably not hard to work out who is most likely to finish bottom and be relegated to League One.

Sheffield Wednesday's 12-point deduction, which has left them 17 points adrift of safety on -4 points, means they're pretty much nailed on to finish bottom (84.8%) - and failing that, are almost certain to go down (98.2%).

Second from bottom Norwich are the next most likely candidates to fall through the trap door (58.5%) but Sheffield United, who currently occupy the final relegation spot, have just a 22.4% chance of going down and are considered more likely to stay up than Oxford (37.8%) and Portsmouth (31.3%).

Derby County return to action after the international break to go in search of a sixth straight Championship win when they welcome Watford to Pride Park on Saturday (15:00 GMT).

The Rams have climbed into the top-10, within two points of the play-off places, having gone five games without a win prior to this run to drop to 21st.

The Hornets are the only side in the division without an away win this season, taking three points from their seven matches on the road in total but went into the break unbeaten in three games to lie 15th, two points behind County.

• Derby County have lost their past four Championship matches against Watford, losing both at Pride Park in this run without scoring a goal (0-1 in 2020/21, 0-2 in 2024/25).

• Watford are looking to win three consecutive away league games against Derby for the first time – they've also kept a clean sheet in their past two, having conceded in each of their first 20 visits.

• Despite having the fewest shots in the Championship this season (127), Derby County are on a five-match winning run. The Rams last won six league games in a row between December 2022 and February 2023 in League One, while in the Championship they last did so between October and December 2016 (7).

• Watford's Imrân Louza has been involved in 11 goals in his past 14 Championship appearances (6 goals, 5 assists), including scoring or assisting in each of his past five games (4 goals, 1 assist).

• Derby's Carlton Morris is the joint leading scorer in the Championship this season with 10 goals, scoring five in November alone. It's the most Championship goals by a Rams player in one month since Matej Vydra scored five in November 2017, while since 2004/05 only Chris Martin has scored more in a single month – seven in December 2013.

Image source, Getty Images

Watford winger Othmane Maamma has been named CAF Young Player of the Year, an award which recognises emerging African talent.

The 20-year-old beat off competition from Ajax U21 midfielder Abdellah Ouazane and Queens Park Rangers U21 defender Tylon Smith to win the trophy.

Maamma helped Morocco win the U20 World Cup this year and was named the tournament's best player as they beat Argentina 2-0 in the final in Santiago last month.

The former Montpellier forward has made two Championship appearances for Watford since joining them in July but is yet to start a game.

Image source, Getty Images

Watford boss Javi Gracia is unsure if goalkeeper Egil Selvik will be fit to face Derby when the Hornets return to Championship action on Saturday (15:00 GMT).

The Norwegian international picked up a shoulder injury in their 1-1 draw with Bristol City earlier this month and had to withdraw from the Norway squad for their recent World Cup qualifiers.

"We will see how he is, he feels well but we are expecting some test results," Gracia told BBC Three Counties Radio.

"After being with his national team he felt something similar he did in the last game."

Selvik has missed only one of Watford's league games so far this season but Gracia admits it is touch-and-go as to whether he will make the trip to Pride Park.

If the 28-year-old is not declared fit to play then Nathan Baxter, who has made one league start this term, is expected to take the gloves.

"He is training, not with the team, but he is training and he feels well - I'm not sure if he will be ready for the next game," Gracia added.

Watford are 15th in the Championship and unbeaten in their past three games.

Geoff Doyle
BBC 3CR sports editor

Image source, Getty Images

Watford are really close to being a decent Championship team. But the nagging feeling remains this young group under progressive head coach Javi Gracia probably need another 12-18 months together before we see the best of them.

The problem with that is some of the talent may not still be at the club and the other problem is nor may the head coach.

That's not to say Gracia's done much wrong since taking over in October - far from it. The performances have improved under the Spaniard. It's just what history tells us about the Hornets.

Imran Louza has been the pick of the bunch. He's matured since his early days when his out-of-possession work let down his overall game. This season he's been excellent, dictating play and scoring crucial goals.

Already we've seen further potential in Nestory Irankunda, Kwadwo Baah, Mamadou Doumbia and plenty of others. There is undoubted talent and Giorgi Chakvetadze should be back soon and he is the best of the lot.

But glimpses and flashes of ability are not quite enough at this level. And as can be the case with young teams they are making mistakes.

It tends to be in decision-making and turning over too often.

Sometimes this Watford team require a bit more patience and recognise they do not always need to beat their man. A simpler pass can be the better option and you can see Gracia getting frustrated by this in the technical area.

With January not far away, Watford could do with a left-footed centre-back, a dynamic central midfielder and a striker - all with experience.

But the current transfer policy is more about discovering teenage unpolished gems such as Othmane Maamma.

You cannot help feeling Gracia must be a bit frustrated when you compare his Premier League Watford side, which was a team packed with elite players, with this raw group who could eventually end up reaching that level.

Nearly a third of the way through the season it feels like Watford could get involved in the play-off race but might just fall short.

In an ideal world, Gracia would continue to develop this potentially exciting bunch, have a full pre-season and go again next campaign.

If he can and if he can keep the majority of this team you would strongly fancy their chances next time round; Gracia is a top-class coach.

But that's a long-term strategy at a club which has a tendency to think short term.

Image source, Shutterstock

Watford winger Othmane Maamma has been nominated for the CAF Young Player of the Year award, recognising emerging African talent.

The 20-year-old captained Morocco twice during their successful U20 World Cup campaign, scoring one goal and delivering four assists to help them lift the trophy and was also named the tournament's best player.

Maamma came off the bench in both of the Hornets last two Championship games against Ipswich Town and Bristol City for his first appearances since joining the side in the summer from Montpellier.

Ajax U21 midfielder Abdellah Ouazane and Queens Park Rangers U21 defender Tylon Smith are the other two names in the running for the award.

Christian Fuller
Watford fan writer

Image source, BBC Sport

Image source, Getty Images

Since his return, Javi Gracia has led Watford to two wins, two draws and two losses.

And while that may seem indicative of another mid-table finish, the performances have been just good enough to create hope in the minds of supporters that we could push for the play-offs.

Five points from three matches across the last seven days may not seem like much, but it is just enough to make us dream.

While a fifth consecutive home victory felt achievable against Bristol City, our form since Gracia's return is not to be sniffed at.

A 3-0 victory and two 1-1 draws against sides above us in the league table should provide a foundation to build on. But whether we capitalise on that is another question.

With six changes ahead of the draw against Bristol City, in addition to the chopping and changing of the starting 11 in recent weeks, it appears that the manager is yet to decide on his strongest line-up.

But by giving him time and backing him in the January transfer window – two things the club is never particularly keen to do – it does feel like he could build a squad good enough to compete at the upper end of the table.

A plethora of players failed to convert chances against the Robins – a familiar tale in recent weeks – but yet again, the one player that proves to be a class above the rest is Imran Louza.

Every week, or in this case every few days, the Moroccan produces a moment of magic to help us pick up points.

And while we begin to look ahead to potential new arrivals, keeping hold of our star man may be the best bit of business we could do this January.

Image source, Getty Images

Watford boss Javi Gracia is willing to give the young players in his squad licence to make mistakes as they look to push up the Championship table.

Othmane Maamma, a recent Under-20 World Cup winner with Morocco, became the latest to make his Hornets debut when he was sent on as a substitute in Tuesday's 1-1 draw with Ipswich Town.

"He needs to play more like all the players, all of them need minutes to show what they are able to do," Gracia told BBC Three Counties Radio.

"I don't like to speak about individuals, I recognise all of them deserve to play, all of them need time to show what they can do.

"Some of them are very young and they need time (on the pitch), they need to play and to make mistakes is the only way to learn."

Watford are 12th in the table, but only four points away from the top six, going into Friday's home match against Bristol City.

Gracia said he was unconcerned at having to play again just three days after the Ipswich game.

"I don't know if I play at night, in the middle or in the morning. I don't mind, I only focus on the game and try to do a good job," he joked.

Image source, Opta

The Championship weekend begins in style on Friday night as Watford welcome Bristol City to Vicarage Road (20:00 GMT).

Only leaders Coventry have more points per game at home than Javi Gracia's Hornets, who have taken 16 points from their opening seven matches at the Vic, losing only once.

They have won the past four, culminating in a 3-0 drubbing of high-flying Middlesbrough last Saturday, while Tuesday's 1-1 draw at Ipswich took them into the top-half.

The Robins are in the midst of an injury crisis but have one of the division's best away records, taking 11 points from their opening five games on the road before the shock 5-1 thrashing at Stoke last Saturday.

Tuesday's 1-0 defeat to Blackburn at Ashton Gate left Gerhard Struber's side in seventh, three points and five places above Watford.

• Watford have won three of their past four home league meetings with Bristol City without conceding (L1), and have lost just once in the Robins' last six (W3 D2).

• Bristol City won their most recent game against Watford in April, and could win back-to-back league matches against them for the first time since a run of three between 1990 and 1991.

• Watford have won each of their past four home league games, their longest run since a five-game spell ending in November 2024 – the Hornets haven't won five in a row while also scoring more than once in each victory on home turf since 1985 in the top-flight (7).

• Bristol City have lost back-to-back league games for the first time under Gerhard Struber, last losing more in a row in February/March 2024, a four-game streak under Liam Manning.

• Watford's Imran Louza has scored in each of his past four Championship appearances, with Troy Deeney in 2015 the last Hornet to go on a longer scoring streak in the league (6 in a row).

Image source, Shutterstock

Watford head coach Javi Gracia has said forward Rocco Vata will be out of action for "a long time" with a serious hamstring injury.

The 20-year-old suffered the injury in the second half of the Hornets' 3-0 win over Middlesbrough on Saturday and Gracia gave an update on the Italian's condition after Tuesday's 1-1 draw at Ipswich.

"I don't know [exactly how long] but it seems like a long time," Gracia told BBC Three Counties Radio.

When asked whether that meant Vata could be sidelined for months, Gracia said "Yes".

Vata has scored two goals in 10 Championship appearances this season.

Here's what Watford boss Javi Gracia told BBC Three Counties Radio following their 1-1 draw at Ipswich on Tuesday.

Image source, Getty Images

Javi Gracia praised his players for their battling efforts after they held on to share the points against Ipswich at Portman Road.

"We knew Ipswich were very strong," the Watford boss told BBC Three Counties Radio. "Like us, they're one of the teams with more points playing at home and away from home we've had difficulties this season.

"I'm happy with the attitude of my players and the spirit they showed, I think it's good for us to get this reward. I'm happy with job my defenders and the keeper did.

"We've competed, the other team was really tough and it was a demanding game. We had to defend well and be more compact at the end of the game, when they had more clear chances."

Hornets skipper Imran Louza was on target for the fourth consecutive game, turning in Marc Bola's cross before Jaden Philogene levelled for the home side.

Gracia added: "It was similar to the goal he scored in the last game, from the other side – another good cross and Imran arriving from the second line."

Ipswich will be looking to continue their winning ways after back-to-back victories for the first time since September, when they welcome Watford to Portman Road on Tuesday (19:45 GMT).

Both Ipswich and Watford won last time out, and each sit just inside the top 10 in the Championship.

Watford beat Middlesbrough in a 3-0 thumping at the weekend, handing Boro just their second defeat of the campaign.

A win for Ipswich would be enough to launch them into the top six.

• Ipswich are unbeaten in each of their past four league games against Watford (W3 D1), with the most recent ending 0-0 at Portman Road in April 2024.

• Watford have lost on just one of their past 11 league visits to Ipswich, a run that stretches back to 2005 (W6 D4) – that sole defeat came in November 2014 under Slavisa Jokanovic.

• Ipswich have lost only two of their past 46 home league games outside of the top-flight (W32 D12), though one of those was in their most recent midweek game, losing 3-0 to Charlton Athletic last month.

• Watford remain winless in each of their past 12 away league games (D3 L9), the longest such ongoing run of any side in the top four tiers of English football.

• Watford's Tom Ince has only scored more goals in the Football League against Rotherham United (9) and Bristol City (8) than against Ipswich Town (5).

Christian Fuller
Watford fan writer

Image source, PA Media

It turns out that being clinical in front of goal wins matches. Who would have thought?

There should never be many things to be negative about after picking up three points and a clean sheet against a side managed by a familiar face which had only previously been beaten once this season.

And Watford's 3-0 win against Middlesborough felt like the full package – a reminder of how we seemed to have got it wrong for so long.

Playing with two out-and-out wingers is something supporters have been calling for. So, to see that deployed in a 4-4-2 formation was a joy and appeared to unlock a new lease of life in the squad.

Watford had remained the only Championship side without a clean sheet this season after 12 matches, so to get rid of that looming statistic also feels wonderful and something to build on.

But the statistic that sums this team up the best is that while we are sitting pretty at the top of the home form table, we find ourselves rock bottom of the away form table.

Now, let's talk about Imran Louza.

It feels as though the Moroccan has single-handedly dragged this team through games this season.

And while Saturday's display was a well-rounded team performance, Louza, who is leading the club's goal scoring charts from midfield with five, is making a claim to be the best in his position in the league.

The only negative to take away from the match was an injury to Rocco Vata.

While Javi Gracia has chopped and changed his starting line-up since his return, Vata had clearly impressed as he had featured in all four fixtures.

But his potential absence may lead the manager to deploy a different attacking option – perhaps all-out attack with Nestory Irankunda from the start? The dreaded sight of Moussa Sissoko out wide? Or even a surprise viewing of Othmane Maamma?

Watford boss Javier Gracia felt his side delivered the right response to their defeat at Coventry as they downed high-flying Middlesbrough 3-0 at Vicarage Road.

Gracia was delighted with the attitude of his players in his fourth game back as manager, and the Hornets recorded their first clean sheet in their 13th Championship match of the season.

Gracia told BBC Three Counties Radio: "I'm happy because it was the result we were looking for after our last defeat in Coventry.

"We have to recognise in the beginning of the game, the opponent had more control of the game, they dominated some minutes without clear chances.

"But later after some minutes, we were able to take control and create some chances and we scored some fantastic goals.

"In the end, we were better and we got a clean sheet. That's really important for us and it's our first of the season.

"Today you could see the quality of all our players, they were hungry and they showed the right mentality."

Middlesbrough will seek to get back to winning ways as they head to Watford on Saturday (15:00 GMT).

Boro made hard work of a 1-1 draw against Wrexham at the Riverside last time out to fall three points behind Coventry, who overcame the 10-man Hornets 3-1 on the same afternoon.

Rob Edwards' side have claimed 11 points from their six away games this season, though their only defeat in their opening 12 games came on the road at Portsmouth.

Javi Gracia's men sit in 14th but have taken 13 points from their six home games and have won the past three at Vicarage Road, all by a 2-1 scoreline.

• Watford have won each of their past two league games against Middlesbrough and will be looking to win three in succession versus Boro for the first time in their EFL history.

• This century, Middlesbrough have won just two of their 12 away league games against Watford (D2 L8), losing on three of their past four visits to Vicarage Road.

• Watford have won 11 points from losing positions in the Championship so far this season, the most of any side in the competition.

• Excluding own goals, Middlesbrough have had the most different goalscorers so far in the 2025-26 Championship campaign (11).

• Watford remain the only Championship side without a clean sheet this season after 12 matches – it is the furthest the Hornets have ever gone into a second-tier campaign without keeping one.

Christian Fuller
Watford fan writer

Image source, BBC Sport

Image source, Getty Images

It is not often you come away from a 3-1 loss against an undefeated side and feel like you deserved all three points.

But that was the main takeaway for most Watford supporters following our defeat by Coventry City – a sense of a missed opportunity to kick-start a season that could be quietly brewing.

Despite the inclusion of the seemingly ever-present old guard of Moussa Sissoko and Edo Kayembe, a starting line-up that included Kwadwo Baah, Mamadou Doumbia and Rocco Vata gave hope we might be able to take the game to Frank Lampard's high-flying side.

And this theory was almost instantly proved right as Vata failed to convert a huge chance in the opening minutes – a tale that would repeat itself a little too often.

In truth, Vata could have won the match single-handedly. And while no Watford fan would hold it against the young forward following his game-winner in midweek, it feels like finishing practice for all will be on the cards in training.

I am not usually one for xG (Expected Goals), but the statistic sums up the performance perfectly – Coventry City 1.31 xG and Watford 2.76 xG.

And that is not to mention more shots, more shots on target, more touches in the opposition box – and the fact Egil Selvik did not make a single save.

Despite it being two losses in his first three games for Javi Gracia, there are signs of potential. And even Coventry City supporters have been complimentary of our performance, with many suggesting the Hornets could find themselves near the top of the table come the business end of the campaign.

While those who did not watch the full 90 minutes of action may look at the result and assume it was another high-scoring walk in the park for the home side, most fans came away with a sense of positivity – something that has been hard to come by in recent times.

So it goes to show that sometimes there is more to a match than just a scoreline.