How many points will be needed this season?published at 09:24 BST 5 May
09:24 BST 5 May
Keifer MacDonald BBC Sport journalist
Since the Premier League became a 20-team format in 1995, the average number of points needed for safety has been 36.
But that will not be enough this time around given that West Ham have already reached that tally and currently occupy the third and final relegation place.
According to data experts Opta, the Hammers are now favourites (77.71%) to be relegated, with Tottenham at 22.03% and Nottingham Forest just 0.13%.
If the three sides continue picking up points at their current rate, then it will be the Hammers who are relegated to the second tier for the first time since 2011.
The 2023 Conference League winners are averaging 1.03 points per game, which would mean they finish the season on 39 points.
Tottenham's return of 1.06 points per game puts them on course to finish on 40 points, while Forest are on track to secure safety for a fourth consecutive season by earning a tally of 46 points.
In a relegation battle like no other, will the Premier League have one final shock in store?
A 'smart' press and visible confidence - De Zerbi so farpublished at 08:19 BST 5 May
08:19 BST 5 May
Umir Irfan Football tactics correspondent
Image source, Getty Images
Roberto de Zerbi took over a Tottenham side struggling for form, confidence and with a series of key players out injured.
But he has already drilled into his side a set of principles that echo what he has done at previous jobs - albeit adapting them to the quality of his players.
Spurs play short from their keeper but are more willing to go long to a target man in Richarlison than De Zerbi's Brighton were.
Given the impressive physicality of the Spurs squad, utilising a high press as a method of chance creation has been smart too.
Igor Tudor looked to take a similar albeit less coordinated approach out of possession, but De Zerbi has built on that - not defending man-to-man across the pitch but instead asking his side to pick moments in which to win the ball back.
None of these tactics however are possible without a squad that believes in the message the coach is relaying.
In his news conferences so far, De Zerbi has been focused on one idea - that Spurs must believe in themselves, and shake off any negativity, if they are to be a Premier League side next season.
Their performance against Villa will have certainly helped.
'Tide may have turned... but we're not in safe waters just yet'published at 17:04 BST 4 May
17:04 BST 4 May
Ali Speechly Fan writer
Image source, Getty Images
Just when it seemed as though the Spurs super tanker was going to run aground once and for all, Roberto de Zerbi has arrived with the lifeboats.
What De Zerbi has achieved with the Spurs squad over the past few weeks is not rocket science. People lacking in confidence need to be reminded of what they're good at. Players struggling to perform need clear and positive instructions. Premier League footballers in a relegation scrap need leading into battle.
However, credit where credit is due. De Zerbi has galvanised this team in a way we haven't seen since Ange Postecoglou's passionate rallying cry before the Europa League final a year ago, and at long last we are reaping the rewards of a new manager bounce.
The Italian is bringing out the best in his players. In particular, Conor Gallagher and Joao Palhinha showed a dogged determination against Aston Villa that was integral to how we controlled the midfield on Sunday.
Up top, 'Relegation Richarlison' relished the opportunity to run himself ragged and grab a goal as our only frontman in the absence of the injured Dominic Solanke.
Even Randal Kolo Muani, who has struggled to find any real rhythm in this stuttering Spurs side, had one of his best performances so far this season.
I listened to our victory over Villa on the radio, and the only thing that could match the relentlessness of our pressing was the loud support from our fans in the away end.
The unity on the pitch was mirrored in the stands, with the positive performance from the players acknowledged and amplified by the fans, who revelled in our team's dominance. Misery may well love company, but joy is infectious too, and the players fed off the energy from the crowd.
As the fans celebrated the win with an almost non-stop rendition of "Tottenham away, ole ole", the next thought on De Zerbi's mind will surely be whether he can get his team to perform like this at home.
The tide may have turned in our favour, but we're not in safe waters just yet.
'We play with 12' - De Zerbi on Gallagherpublished at 14:11 BST 4 May
14:11 BST 4 May
Image source, Getty Images
Tottenham boss Roberto de Zerbi says Conor Gallagher has shown himself as a "great player" for Spurs capable of making it feel like the side has 12 men.
Gallagher, 26, joined for £35m in January but has only felt what it is like to win for the club in league fixtures during the past two games.
His early goal at Aston Villa on Sunday proved key as De Zerbi's side moved out of the relegation zone with a 2-1 win.
"When Gallagher plays like this we play with 12 players because you can find him as a striker, as a midfielder, as a full-back - everywhere on the pitch you can find him," De Zerbi said.
"Great player, great passion, great qualities."
Gallagher thinks he produced his best display for the club in the win at Villa Park.
"It has been a difficult few months for me, for the whole club, and this is what I do best, work hard off the ball," he told Spurs TV.
"I am a team player. I try to do what I do best and the fans were able to see that. I'll keep doing that the best I can to make the club proud, to help Tottenham keep playing like that and get more wins.
"If I am being honest, normally when you score your first goal for the club there is a relief for yourself, but there was none of that. I was so focused on going again and continuing to play well, knowing how important the three points were.
Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham - the fans' verdictpublished at 11:57 BST 4 May
11:57 BST 4 May
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We asked for your thoughts after Sunday's Premier League game between Aston Villa and Tottenham.
Here are some of your comments:
Aston Villa fans
Tony: For all the excitement Villa fans have had over the last few years, we are always expecting some sort of trophy but always fall short. Most fans seem to think that qualifying for the Champions League is the most important thing, it really isn't. If the money from qualifying is more important than winning a trophy, then what on earth is the point of it all?
Alex: Poor performance and I have to admit it's looking like there are few wins left this season on this form. Forest are doing well and therefore the Europa final may be a step too far, but fingers crossed. Three points should get us across the line, and hopefully we can get it against Burnley, although there's no easy games as they say. The Champions League is so crucial - it all falls apart without that and Unai Emery's big players are likely to go, so it's high stakes. How we've missed those big midfielders at crucial points in the season.
Palma: The most uninspiring, lacklustre and embarrassing display I've seen in a while. How Emery didn't make at least three substitutions at half-time was more baffling than his starting 11.
Paul: Villa have not been playing well for weeks now, and I am really concerned about this coming Thursday's match against Forest. I think we need a major improvement, otherwise we won't even make the top six.
Tottenham fans
Stephen: Night and day contrast from what we've been forced to watch since September. We have to carry it straight through against Leeds though and break our home curse. That's the next step to redemption.
Stan: If only we had got De Zerbi earlier, Spurs wouldn't be in this mess. Arguably our best performance of the season, immense work rate by all players - especially Conor Gallagher - and so pleasing he got his first Spurs goal. The team played with a structure and purpose and a desire to win. De Zerbi has installed a confidence back in this squad that has been so lacking and now Spurs supporters can look forward to our next home game with a positive outlook.
John: The manager seems to have instilled a level of confidence which has been lacking all season.
Bill: This is the best I've felt since that night against Ajax - everybody took responsibility, fewer got injured and nobody gave up. Thanks, Spurs.
'It's not about style, it's about fight and passion'published at 11:29 BST 4 May
11:29 BST 4 May
Image source, Getty Images
Former Premier League midfielder Nigel Reo-Coker says Tottenham showed the "fight and passion" needed to avoid relegation in Sunday's vital 2-1 win at Aston Villa.
Spurs moved out of the Premier League relegation zone with an impressive victory against a heavily-rotated and below-par Villa side.
"Aston Villa were poor but I don't want to take anything away from Tottenham," Reo-Coker told BBC Radio 5 Live's Football Daily podcast.
"They came in and turned up. It's not their fault that Villa rotated their team.
"Spurs fought, they scrapped, they are really showing the fighting spirit needed when you are in a relegation battle.
"I have to give them credit because they put in the type of performance they absolutely needed to put in.
"They did what they had to do in a relegation fight to get a vital three points, and it is what they are going to have to show now for every single game for the rest of the season.
"It's a performance they needed and one that will give them a belief they would not have had a few weeks ago. It's not about style, it's about fight and passion. Villa were poor but they did what they had to do.
"Now there is a bit of momentum. They now feel they can get out of it but they have got to go and do it again."
'Salvation in sight' for De Zerbi's Spurspublished at 09:01 BST 4 May
09:01 BST 4 May
Phil McNulty Chief football writer
Image source, Getty Images
Roberto de Zerbi had called on Tottenham to silence the voices as this traumatic and turbulent season reached the point of no return.
The new head coach referred to the negativity surrounding Spurs as he attempted to mount a late salvage operation to avoid the prospect of the most embarrassing relegation in Premier League history.
And how his players responded to his emotional call to arms, with their finest display of the campaign to secure a hugely deserved 2-1 victory at Aston Villa that leapfrogged them over West Ham and out of the relegation zone.
This was so emphatic and so transformed from what had been served up before De Zerbi's appointment on 31 March, that it's fair to ask pertinent questions.
Not just where has this version of Spurs been all season, but - more significantly - was this the moment the tide turned for them as they bid to dodge the drop?
After last weekend's vital win at Wolves, De Zerbi said: "It's like we are all crying and relegated. No, not yet. We have to die on the pitch. We have to play and we have to fight.
"It's not the best moment for us, it's a tough moment, but the losers cry. They think negatively. I don't want people close to me crying or thinking a different way to me."
Every word hit the bullseye as self-belief, unity, fierce competitiveness, quality, fight and sheer bloody-mindedness - words that have been like a foreign language at Spurs in this torrid campaign - surged through De Zerbi's side at Villa Park.
Not that the demanding Italian was totally satisfied though, as he told Match of the Day: "The season is not finished yet. We cannot be happy just for these two wins. We have to keep working with the same mentality."
In what has been a campaign of unrelenting misery, the players and supporters who celebrated with sheer joy at the end of Sunday's game may just be starting to feel salvation is in sight.
'Advantage Tottenham' in three-way relegation fight?published at 07:52 BST 4 May
07:52 BST 4 May
Alex Brotherton BBC Sport journalist
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It felt like a huge result for Tottenham.
West Ham's 3-0 defeat by Brentford on Saturday opened the door for Spurs to climb out of the bottom three - and Roberto de Zerbi's side took full advantage at Aston Villa on Sunday.
"I didn't see that coming," said former Villa and Manchester City defender Micah Richards on Match of the Day.
"Aston Villa were poor but, right from the start, Spurs absolutely made the most of it with their desire and intensity. They were exceptional in how they set up. They were really brave.
"Every time we make a prediction, we get it wrong - but West Ham have got it all to do now. Spurs have got a bit of momentum and they have set their standard.
"Roberto de Zerbi deserves a lot of credit. None of his players hid and it's down to him giving them that confidence."
The Premier League's record goalscorer Alan Shearer added: "They won every single tackle, they won every single second ball, and they took the risk out of their game by not playing out from the back in certain circumstances.
"You need every single player at it when in desperate trouble - and Spurs had that. It has been a terrible weekend for West Ham."
Nottingham Forest in 16th have played one game fewer than both Spurs and West Ham and could go six points clear of the drop zone with a win at Chelsea on Monday (15:00 BST).
Leeds United are 14th with 43 points, and Crystal Palace are just below them on goal difference but with a game in hand, so it looks like it's going to be a three-way battle between Forest, Spurs and West Ham.
Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham: What De Zerbi and Gallagher saidpublished at 21:31 BST 3 May
21:31 BST 3 May
Media caption,
'Season not finished yet we cannot be happy' - De Zerbi
Spurs boss Robert De Zerbi, speaking to BBC Match of the Day: "Especially in the first half, we could score more goals than two. We didn't concede any chance to score and played very well. The right spirit and behaviour on the pitch. I'm pleased with the performances.
"I knew my players were very good before this game. We have to not forget the situation before Wolverhampton. The season is not finished yet, and we cannot be happy just for these two wins. We have to keep working with the same mentality.
"And now I don't want to hear the positive voice. We have to stay focused for the next game. I think my biggest job is to help the players to show their qualities. Their level is not to fight for relegation, but we have to accept and be stronger than the people who speak too much.
"We have to feel the same pressure. Football can change week-by-week, and we can't forget the position in the table and what we felt before the Wolves game. We have to push again."
Spurs midfielder Conor Gallagher, speaking to TNT Sports: "We're really happy with the performance and the three points. It's been a perfect night but hopefully it's just the start. We want to carry it on for the last few games of the season.
On his goal: "It's a good goal. I'm really happy with my first goal. It's always a relief to get the first goal and hopefully a few more can come now.
On Roberto De Zerbi: "I can't speak highly enough of him. He's been so good. Every player in the squad has taken to him; he makes you feel so good. He brings the best out of you.
On the fans: "They've had a really rough time this season, along with us. We're all one. Hopefully, this can be the start of something great."
Did you know?
Tottenham Hotspur have won consecutive Premier League matches for the first time since winning their opening two games of this season against Burnley and Manchester City.
Tottenham's 2-0 lead after 25 minutes was the earliest they'd scored two in a Premier League game since December 2024 against Southampton (4-0 after 25 mins), while Aston Villa found themselves 2-0 down at that stage of a home game for the first time since February 2021 against Leicester (23 mins).
Analysis: De Zerbi channels positive performancepublished at 21:14 BST 3 May
21:14 BST 3 May
Phil McNulty Chief football writer
Image source, Getty Images
Roberto De Zerbi had demanded all negative thoughts be dismissed as he attempted to salvage safety in this wretched, turbulent season for Spurs.
And the Italian's message looked to have been received loud and clear on and off the pitch on what might yet be viewed as the most important night of the club's season.
Even before kick-off, when the Spurs players came out to warm up, they were greeted with deafening roars from the packed away section at Villa Park.
The response on the pitch was also outstanding as they tore into Villa from the first whistle, pressing high to force goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez and his defenders into poor clearances and uncertainty.
Spurs suddenly looked like a team bursting with self-belief and confidence as the hosts, closing in on a place in next season's Champions League, were run ragged.
Joao Palhinha and Rodrigo Bentancur ruled midfield with quality and physical presence, while the tireless Richarlison never allowed the Villa defence a moment's peace.
On the rare occasions Villa did threaten, Micky van de Ven and Kevin Danso held firm at the back. Even Emi Buendia's goal in the sixth minute of added time came far too late to make Spurs nerves jangle.
This was a complete performance from De Zerbi's men in what looked like one of their most hazardous fixtures, offering a shaft of light after the dark clouds that have hung over them for most of the campaign.
You can also listen to today's 5 Live Premier League commentaries on most smart speakers. Just say "ask BBC Sounds to play Bournemouth v Crystal Palace" or "ask BBC Sounds to play Man Utd v Liverpool".
Have West Ham given Tottenham an escape route?published at 12:15 BST 3 May
12:15 BST 3 May
Matthew Howarth BBC Sport journalist
Image source, Getty Images
When Tomas Soucek's effort grazed the post in the final stages of West Ham United's defeat at Brentford on Saturday afternoon, their supporters could've been forgiven for exchanging exasperated looks.
The 3-0 scoreline at Gtech Community Stadium may point to a comfortable victory for Keith Andrews' Europe-chasing side, but it tells only half the story.
Victory would have lifted West Ham five points clear of the bottom three, but instead they have left the door ajar for Tottenham to leapfrog them with victory at Aston Villa on Sunday night.
The Hammers currently remain two points above Spurs, but Roberto de Zerbi's side have a game in hand and are nine goals healthier in terms of goal difference.
"We had chances, we hit the post twice, we hit the bar and we hit the post again," captain Jarrod Bowen told Sky Sports. "It's really disappointing. We had good opportunities.
"On another day we would have got the win. We have done a lot of good things."
But if Tottenham win at Villa Park, it would leave them in the driving seat - just - to avoid the drop.
It would also leave West Ham hoping for a result against title-chasing Arsenal, who are six points clear at the top of the table and have plundered 11 goals on their previous two league visits to London Stadium.
After facing Aston Villa, Tottenham's next game is at home to a Leeds United side who have lost their past five league meetings against the north London club.
So although the form book often means little as the battle for survival reaches its climax, Brentford's win could prove pivotal for West Ham and Spurs.
In an interview on West Ham United's website, external, Nuno Espirito Santo urged his players to respond against Arsenal and called on the fans to play their part.
"Let's realise that how we react from a bad day is going to keep us alive in this [relegation] fight," the head coach said.
"We have been asking our fans for their support and our fans are giving back. They are disappointed with us [after this result], but we need them more than ever."
Sutton's predictions: Aston Villa v Tottenhampublished at 10:01 BST 3 May
10:01 BST 3 May
Tottenham probably need to win three of their last four games to stay up but, although they finally won in 2026 when they beat Wolves last week, I am not sure it has given them any momentum.
It was a huge result for Roberto De Zerbi's side but you have to remember Wolves are woeful and Spurs also made hard work of their victory.
What helps Spurs here is that Aston Villa have their Europa League semi-final against Nottingham Forest to contend with over the next few days.
Even so, I still feel like Villa will be too good.
This defeat will send Spurs one step closer to the drop and a trip to play my old club Lincoln City in the Championship next season.
Aston Villa v Tottenham: Key stats and talking pointspublished at 13:12 BST 2 May
13:12 BST 2 May
Chris Adams BBC Sport journalist
Two teams with vastly different objectives at the business end of the season will clash in the unusual Sunday evening slot (19:00 BST) when Aston Villa welcome Tottenham Hotspur to the West Midlands.
Villa, off the back of a 1-0 defeat by Nottingham Forest in the Europa League semi-final first leg on Thursday, are aiming to get back into the Champions League via their Premier League position, lest they fall short of winning the continent's second-tier club competition.
Presently, they are poised to do just that, sitting fifth, eight points clear of Brighton. There is a worry, however, that the Villans may have peaked too early when they won eight league games on the trot in November and December.
Unai Emery's side have won just two of their past seven in the league, losing four – as many defeats as they suffered in their previous 24 top-flight matches.
Ollie on the up
Leading scorer Ollie Watkins has six goals in his past seven matches, a welcome return to form after netting just three in 16 during a challenging start to 2026.
It is perhaps not a coincidence that his good run started after 20 March, when he wasn't named in Thomas Tuchel's England squad for that month's friendlies.
Indeed, he has scored goals in three previous Premier League games against sides managed by Roberto de Zerbi, including a hat-trick against Brighton in September 2023.
One place he has not scored from this season, however, is the penalty spot. Villa and, coincidentally, Spurs are the only two sides in the division not to have been awarded a spot-kick this term.
Roberto's rallying cry
Tottenham are aiming to secure back-to-back league wins for the first time since the opening eight days of the season.
Having ended their 16-game domestic winless streak with victory over relegated Wolverhampton Wanderers last week, De Zerbi's side must aim for the same again on Sunday.
Spurs are teetering on the brink. They sit 18th, two points adrift of West Ham United, and the prospect of Championship football is looming increasingly large unless they get their act together.
De Zerbi, appointed at the end of March, said before Saturday's win at Molineux: "This team is able to win five games in a row." It's a bold statement given the Lilywhites have won just eight of their 34 matches so far.
It is one down, four to go, if this injury-stricken Spurs squad is to meet the Italian coach's target. No team has ever been in the relegation zone with five matches of a Premier League season to play and won them all.
There are, however, 18 examples of such a team winning three of their last five games (and five instances of a team winning four games), which should give hope to those currently suffering in north London.
A point would be more useful to the hosts than the visitors, but recent history suggests honours are unlikely to finish even in this fixture. None of the past 21 league meetings between Villa (seven wins) and Spurs (14) have ended level.
De Zerbi on Maddison, mentality and why 'losers cry'published at 15:28 BST 1 May
15:28 BST 1 May
Tottenham boss Roberto de Zerbi has been speaking to the media before Sunday's Premier League game against Aston Villa at Villa Park (kick-off 19:00 BST).
Here are the key lines from his news conference:
De Zerbi started his news conference by addressing what he says is the "most important challenge now" which is to "silence the voice inside of us".
He added: "This voice produces negative thoughts and the voice says we are unlucky, we have too many injuries. I think it's all negative things and it's rubbish. I want to keep the focus on ourselves and the quality of my players. It's not the best moment for us, a tough moment, but the losers cry, they think negative and I don't want people close to me crying or to think a different way than me. I heard no, it's impossible, we are crying, everyone, we are relegated, no? Not yet and we have to die on the pitch. We have to play, we have to fight, we have two points less than West Ham."
On facing Villa he said: "We go to play against one of the best teams in this moment in the Premier League but if Tottenham win at Villa Park it's not a miracle. Maybe we lose but we have the quality to win this game. It's not a miracle. We have to be positive."
On whether James Maddison will play against Aston Villa or Leeds, De Zerbi added: "He is a special player but we have to consider physical condition, a lot of things, but I think he can be important in the next three games."
De Zerbi confirmed Guglielmo Vicario is not available, while Dominic Solanke will be out for the Villa game with a hamstring injury, with no timeframe offered for his return. Destiny Udogie is available according to the Spurs boss but he does not know if he will be able to start.
Asked whether there is too much negativity in football, he said: "Yes. We [have] a lot of injuries, we lost two points with Brighton and in Sunderland we conceded one stupid goal and didn't deserve to lose the game, just in my time."
Finally on their mentality, the Spurs boss said: "I feel this pressure to change the perspective - the same perspective you can see in a different way."
