Albertans appear to have rejected referendum on independencepublished at 07:40 BST 20 October

07:40 BST 20 October

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Alberta

It turns out that the polling was accurate after all: the majority of Albertans want their province to stay in Canada.

Albertans appear to have rejected opening the conversation of separation and having a binding referendum on independence down the line.

Premier Danielle Smith said before the vote that if this is the outcome, a referendum on separation will not be held – at least, not while she is in power.

But that doesn’t mean that the conversation around Albertan sovereignty is over.

Leaders of the separatist movement have indicated they plan to push Smith out of power within her United Conservative Party, with hopes of installing a leader who is more sympathetic to their cause.

It’s unclear if they have the numbers on their side to do that, but debate around the issue could dominate politics in Alberta for years to come.

• As a reminder, we are expecting the first preliminary results in the coming hours.

Image source, Reuters

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says Abertans have made "a clear choice" to reject a referendum on independence, early projections suggest. Here is his statement in full:

“On October 19, Albertans made a clear choice. They chose unity, to build together, and to take care of each other.

Above all, Albertans chose Canada.

While votes on all questions continue to be tallied, tonight’s results on the defining question of separation mean that Albertans and all Canadians will move forward together with renewed purpose and high ambition.

We are building that future, bigger and faster than ever before. Canada is securing new trade partners around the world, fast-tracking major, nation-building projects in every part of the country, and unleashing our full potential as a global energy superpower with Alberta at its core.

Canada is so much greater than the sum of its parts. Now it is our opportunity to take all that we have been given as Canadians – and we have been given the greatest country in the world – and make our country better for all of us.”

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Alberta

I'm at a pro-independence watch party that's just packing up around me. People are going home, there's a sense that the party's over.

There was a lot of upbeat chatter earlier here, but the hum of that quickly quieted down when it became apparent - now that some of the early results are coming out - that Albertans overwhelmingly voted against holding a referendum to separate.

Image source, Reuters

The western Canadian province of Alberta has been voting on whether to remain part of Canada, or begin the process of holding a binding referendum on separation.

The question voters answered wasn't a simple "stay" or "leave".

Instead, voters have been asked: "Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?"

There were two options on the ballot paper: Option A - remain in Canada and Option B - start the process to hold a referendum.

The other nine questions did require a yes or no answer. Five dealt with immigration, while the other four focused on the Canadian constitution.

Among other things, voters have been asked whether they support giving Alberta’s provincial government greater authority to restrict immigration to the province, limit access to certain social services and introduce legislation that requires certain additional forms of identification to vote.

Here's a recap of what's happened so far, with polls indicating the majority of people in the province will vote to remain in Canada.

Voters in Alberta have rejected a proposal to hold a binding referendum on whether to begin the process of separating from Canada, according to Canada's national public broadcaster CBC News.

As a reminder, we are expecting the first preliminary results in the coming hours.

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Alberta

The first batch of results have just come in, and they don’t look good for the Albertans who want separation.

At the pro-separatist watch party here in Edmonton, the hum of upbeat chatter quickly quieted as attendees saw preliminary results so far show 76.5% voting to remain in Canada, and 23.5% voting to hold an independence referendum.

“Liberal lies!” yelled one woman at the TV displaying the CBC broadcast of the result, telling others “please don’t worry.”

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Edmonton, Alberta

If you're just joining us, here's what to know:

• It's 23:00 local time in Alberta and polls have just closed. We expect to have results start to trickle in shortly
• Albertans have voted on whether to remain in Canada or hold a binding referendum on independence
• Supporters of separation in traditionally the conservative province are motivated by frustration with Ottawa and the Liberal government of Prime Minister Mark Carney. Some told the BBC earlier today that they want an independent Alberta, while others said they are voting in hopes of having some of their frustrations addressed by Ottawa
• Mitch Sylvestre, a leader of the separatist movement, told the BBC that "a lot of work will have to be done" to curb the appetite for independence, even if his side loses
• Pro-Canada Albertans have told the BBC at polling stations that they are motivated to keep the country united. Some say they worry that an independent Alberta would be vulnerable to outside influence, including from the United States
• Polls indicate the majority of Albertans will vote to remain in Canada, but both sides are anxious to see if results will reflect that

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Edmonton, Alberta

Polls across Alberta have closed, and now the focus will be on watching the results.

Stick with us as we bring you the numbers and developments as they come through.

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Edmonton, Alberta

I just spoke with Mitch Sylvestre, one of the lead organisers of the group that was responsible for the citizen-led petition that called for a referendum on independence.

He tells me he thinks the numbers will be stronger than what polling suggests. Polls indicate that a majority of Albertans want to stay in Canada, and will reject having a binding referendum on separation.

"I'm from rural Alberta, and in rural Alberta the conversation is more towards independence," Sylvestre told me.

Asked what would happen to his movement if they lose by a wide margin tonight, Sylvestre said they would "have to re-evaluate", but he does not appear to be worried.

"There's going to have to be a lot of work done on both sides to stop the [independence] conversation," he said, adding that he believes Alberta "has been abused for 10 years" by the Liberal government in Ottawa

Image source, Boris Spremo/Toronto Star via Getty Images

Canada has grappled with threats to its unity before, including with occasional violence.

The province of Quebec held two referendums on independence, in 1980 and 1995. Both were unsuccessful, though the second one was a nail-biter - the "No" side won, squeaking by with just 50.58% of the vote.

Alberta independence supporters don't hide the fact that they gain inspiration from the majority French-speaking province.

They view Quebec as having successfully used the threat of separation to gain significant political leverage over Ottawa, and more autonomy over provincial affairs.

The movement shaped Canadian political debates for decades and 20 years ago, Parliament passed a motion officially recognising that the Québécois form a nation within a united Canada, for the preservation of their unique language and culture within the country.

And despite support for Quebec sovereignty being at historic lows, a newly elected provincial government has pledged to hold a third referendum on independence by 2030.

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Edmonton, Alberta

Just a kilometre away from the pro-Canada watch party in Edmonton is another held by supporters of separatism.

The feeling in the room is different — it's at a local Italian restaurant where dozens of people are already here drinking and socialising.

Some of them are familiar faces from a pro-independence rally we attended a few days ago.

One supporter tells me that the room feels "hopeful" and that he predicts the majority in the province will vote to hold a referendum on separation.

Polls are set to close in less than an hour, after which we should start to see some results trickle in.

Image source, BBC/Eloise Alanna

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Edmonton, Alberta

Three volunteers at the pro-Canada watch party tell us that they have been handing out lawn signs and getting petition signatures for the last 18 months across the province.

They describe the debate over Alberta's future as "divisive" and "ugly".

"You're not talking to people that you've talked to all your life," says Clara Hosler.

Linda Lukawesky, another volunteer, says that she and other campaigners have also been met with hostility on the road by those on the pro-independence side.

Despite these encounters, both say they are confident their side will get a majority tonight.

"I have no worries," says Hosler.

But Teressa Gold, another volunteer, says she's anxious about whether the result will be enough to shut down the debate on separation.

"We have to show that we’re strong," she says.

Image source, BBC/Eloise Alanna

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Edmonton, Alberta

We've just arrived at a watch party held by the main campaign for the remain side, Forever Canadian at the Polish Hall near downtown Edmonton.

Polls were supposed to close at 20:00 local time, but are staying open longer at some locations due to a late start.

Because of this, we won't expect any results on the referendum to be released until after the count starts about 21:00 local time (23:00 EDT/04:00 BST).

The party is also likely to start a bit late here, with only a dozen or so volunteers here so far. The crowd is expected to grow throughout the evening.

Stay with us as we bring you the latest.

Image source, BBC/Eloise Alanna

Jessica Murphy
Canada digital editor

Image source, Reuters

Why is it such a long wait for results? The short answer is that millions of ballots need to be counted by hand.

Everyone who voted in this referendum was handed 10 colour-coded ballots, one per referendum question.

Counting will take time. Elections Alberta - an independent, non-partisan agency that oversees elections in the province - has said it will take up to 48 hours.

The agency said each voting station has four teams of two people counting. Each team can count around 400 ballots per hour.

The count for ballots cast today only begins when polls close - the last ones will be at 21:00 local time (23:00 EDT/04:00 BST).

So there may be a long wait for the full preliminary results.

But what about Question 10, on separation? Those ballots will be counted first due to the strong interest in the results.

We can expect those results in the early hours of Tuesday morning, local time (between 09:00 BST and 11:00 BST).

Questions 1 to 9 - the immigration and Constitutional questions - will then be counted in that order.

Image source, Reuters

Most polls in Alberta will close in the next hour, but because a few opened late, they will also stay open longer.

Elections Alberta, an independent agency, says some could stay open until 22:00 local time (05:00 BST) - which is two hours later than planned.

And if voters are in line before the polling station closes, they will still be allowed to cast their ballots.

Once everyone has had the chance to vote, Elections Alberta will begin releasing results in real time as counts are completed and returning offices enter them into the system.

Then the work will start to count the ballots cast today (counting on advanced votes began this afternoon).

Albertans voted on 10 separate referendum questions, each with its own colour-coded ballot. Those all need to be hand-counted.

Question 10 - the one on separation referendum - will be counted first, with preliminary results expected in the early hours of the morning.

Once those ballots are counted, Alberta Elections will move on to counting ballots for Question 1 through 9, in that order.

Jessica Murphy
Canada digital editor

Image source, Reuters

As we've been reporting, there are nine other questions being voted on in today's Alberta referendum, which have been overshadowed by question 10, on separation.

Five deal with the province gaining more control over immigration. They also relate to giving Alberta more autonomy but would require reforms to Canada's constitution, which can be no easy task.

Depending on the amendment put forward, it can require support from the House of Commons, the Senate, and a minimum number of provincial legislatures.

One ask - abolishing the un-elected federal Senate - would require unanimous agreement between Parliament and all 10 provinces. (Senators are appointed in Canada).

Last week in the province, Prime Minister Mark Carney told supporters "vote no to the nine".

In a podcast hosted by Ryan Jespersen, external, a radio host, that was posted on Friday, he went into more depth on the subject.

"The Constitution is not un-amendable, to be clear, but it requires building a real consensus around what's necessary to change and which elements you are going to change," he said.

"I get the point about an unelected Senate," he noted, but added that Canada does update the number of seats in the House of Commons to reflect growing populations in places like Alberta.

"Am I open to Constitutional reform? Yes, I'm open to it, or I'm open to it with laying the groundwork for consensus."

He said he was focused more on "co-operative federalism", when federal and provincial governments work together towards mutual goals.

Image source, Getty Images

As Albertans head to the polls, the leaders of other Canadian provinces are advocating for a strong, unified Canada.

British Columbia Premier David Eby had a message for Alberta on referendum day.

"We share families, jobs, a border and a lot of history," Eby said on X. "We don’t always see eye to eye. We argue, and we stay together. You’re our neighbours and our family, and this country is better with you in it."

Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew posted a video message on X, in which he said: "As a Manitoban, I know what it's like to feel like eastern Canada ignores us here in the west sometimes."

"But as a Canadian, I also know that the way we work through difficult things is not by running away," he added. "It's about sitting down and hashing out our differences together."

The premiers of other provinces including Saskatchewan, Ontario, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia have also previously spoken out against Alberta's separation from Canada.

Meanwhile, Quebec's incoming Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon campaigned on his own province separating from Canada, and has said he would support an independent Alberta.

Jessica Murphy
Canada digital editor

Image source, Getty Images

As we just mentioned, one key issue has become central to the independence debate: Would Alberta be richer if it were to become an independent country?

Alberta separatists argue that the province has been short-changed by being part of Canada, and that more of the oil and gas wealth would be kept within its borders instead of being shared with Ottawa, delivering it tens of billions in savings.

But many disagree with their accounting.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who opposes independence, predicts a more sober outcome. She says the province could risk paying C$400bn ($283bn; £213bn) in transition costs alone, while bleeding billions more in lost investments and trade due to the political upheaval.

A report commissioned, external by her government released earlier this month calculated the costs of separation as between C$50bn and C$170bn over five years - and a highly unpredictable outlook over the long term.

Read more here about the economic debate.

Just 24 hours before the polls opened today, the Alberta Federation of Labour held a large Canada Unity Rally outside the provincial legislature on Sunday.

Crowds of supporters donning red and white and waving Canadian flags gathered as members of the Alberta New Democratic Party, the Forever Canadian movement and a First Nations chief spoke out against the push to leave Canada.

Image source, LightRocket via Getty Images

Image source, LightRocket via Getty Images

Just a day before, pro-independence voters gathered in front of the same building at an Alberta Independence Rally to voice their support for leaving Canada.

Image source, AFP via Getty Images

Image source, AFP via Getty Images

Grace Eliza Goodwin
Live reporter

Image source, Reuters

Many of the grievances separatists have with the federal government are economic in nature, Feodor Snagovsky, a political science professor at the University of Alberta tells the BBC.

Particularly, separatists are fed up with the way federal tax revenues are distributed among the provinces according to their economic capacity, Snagovsky says.

"Poorer provinces get more money," he explains. "Richer provinces like Alberta get less money."

Alberta is the richest province in Canada, with the highest incomes and some of the lowest levels of taxation.

But if Alberta were to separate from Canada, Snagovksy says, the province as a whole would become poorer.

The province's economy would decrease by levels even greater than the British economy did after Brexit, he adds.

"You'd have a much, much greater economic shock."

Read more about how Alberta's economy might fare if it broke away from Canada.