Intambara muri RD Congo yarangira gute?

Umusesenguzi ku karere k'ibiyaga bigari avuga ko amaherezo y'intambara mu burasirazuba bwa Repubulika ya Demokarasi ya Congo (DRC) yaba urukomatane rw'ingamba zinyuranye.

Amasezerano y'amahoro Perezida w'u Rwanda Paul Kagame na Perezida wa DRC Félix Tshisekedi basinyanye i Washington – yahagarikiwe na Perezida w'Amerika Donald Trump – ku itariki ya 4 Ukuboza (12) mu mwaka wa 2025, ntarashobora kurangiza intambara.

Mu byo ateganya harimo ko u Rwanda rucyura "ako kanya" ingabo zarwo, zigereranywa ko zigera mu bihumbi, zikava mu burasirazuba bwa DRC. Ayo masezerano anasaba leta ya DRC kurandura, cyangwa kwaka ubushobozi bwo gukora (neutralise), umutwe w'inyeshyamba wa FDLR.

Dr Richard Moncrieff, ushinzwe akarere k'ibiyaga bigari mu kigo mpuzamahanga cyigenga cy'ubushakashatsi ku gucyemura amakimbirane (International Crisis Group), yabwiye BBC Gahuzamiryango ko nubwo bisa nkaho ibintu byabaye nk'ibiceceka ku rugamba, atari ko bimeze kuko ahubwo impande zihanganye zahinduye umuvuno.

Agira ati: "Impinduka y'ingenzi yabayeho mu 2026 ni ukurushaho gukoresha 'drones' [indege nto z'intambara zitajyamo umupilote] bikozwe n'ingabo z'u Rwanda, M23 n'ingabo za DRC."

Hashize imyaka hafi itanu intambara mu burasirazuba bwa DRC yongeye kwaduka hagati y'ingabo za leta y'icyo gihugu (FARDC) n'umutwe w'inyeshyamba wa M23, nubwo intambara imaze imyaka hafi 30 ihagarara ikongera ikubura.

M23 ubu igenzura ibice binini mu ntara za Kivu ya Ruguru na Kivu y'Epfo n'imijyi ya Goma na Bukavu – imirwa mikuru y'izo ntara. Mu Kuboza (12) mu 2025 – nyuma y'iminsi u Rwanda na DRC bisinyanye amasezerano y'amahoro – M23 yari yafashe n'umujyi wa Uvira mu ntara ya Kivu y'Epfo, nyuma iza kuwuvamo ku gitutu cy'amahanga arangajwe imbere n'Amerika.

Kinshasa n'inzobere za ONU bashinja u Rwanda gufasha umutwe wa M23 mu kuwuha imyitozo, abasirikare, ibikoresho no kuwuha amategeko. U Rwanda rurabihakana, rukavuga ko rwashyizeho "ingamba z'ubwirinzi". Kinshasa n'Amerika bakomeje gusaba u Rwanda gukura ingabo zarwo ku butaka bwa DRC.

Ku rundi ruhande, Kigali n'izo raporo za ONU bashinja leta ya DRC gukorana n'umutwe wa FDLR urwanya ubutegetsi bw'u Rwanda ukorera mu burasirazuba bwa DRC. Kinshasa irabihakana, ikavuga ko nta gahunda ya leta iriho yo gukorana na FDLR ndetse, muri Nyakanga (7) uyu mwaka, Kinshasa yagiranye amasezerano na FDLR aho uwo mutwe wavuze ko wemeye gushyira intwaro hasi hadakoreshejwe imbaraga, ahubwo hakoreshejwe "ubukangurambaga".

Amasezerano ya Kinshasa na FDLR

Leta y'u Rwanda yamaganye ayo masezerano hagati ya leta ya DRC na FDLR. Mu butumwa yatangaje ku rubuga nkoranyambaga rwa X, Minisitiri w'ububanyi n'amahanga w'u Rwanda Olivier Nduhungirehe yavuze ko ayo masezerano ari "amayeri ya politike yo gutinza [ibintu] arimo gukoreshwa na Kinshasa" kuri uwo mutwe u Rwanda rushinja kugira uruhare muri jenoside yabaye muri icyo gihugu mu mwaka wa 1994.

Umuvugizi w'umutwe wa FDLR Cure Ngoma yabwiye BBC ko muri ayo masezerano wagiranye na Kinshasa, witeguye gusubira mu Rwanda kandi ko wemera ko "icyaha ari gatozi", ko udashyigikiye "umuco wo kudahana" ndetse ko bamwe mu bawugize bashinjwa kugira uruhare muri jenoside witeguye ko baburanishwa, ubundi wo ugahangana "imbere mu gihugu mu rubuga rwa politike".

Dr Moncrieff yemera ko "umutwe wa FDLR ufitanye isano rwose n'abakoze jenoside mu Rwanda mu 1994" ariko akongeraho ati: "Ubushobozi bwawo bwo gukomeretsa no kwangiza u Rwanda buri hasi cyane. Nanavuga ko Jenerali James Kabarebe mu 2019 yavuze ko FDLR nta nkeke igiteje ku Rwanda. Kandi ahanini nemeranya n'ibyo.

"[FDLR] Bafite ingengabitekerezo mbi cyane yo kwanga Abatutsi ariko inkeke nyakuri bateje ku butaka bw'u Rwanda ni nto cyane.

"[Perezida w'u Rwanda Paul] Kagame yavuze ko [FDLR] bakorana n'ingabo za Congo kandi ibyo ni ukuri. Ariko uko gukorana kwiyongereye guhera mu 2021, ari cyo gihe u Rwanda rwagabye M23 mu burasirazuba bwa DRC. Kandi ntekereza ko icyo ibyo bigaragaza ni uko kugaba mu burasirazuba bwa DRC imitwe yitwaje intwaro ukoresha [ugenzura] biba bishobora guhuhura ikibazo aho kugira ngo bitume gitera intambwe yo gucyemuka."

Mu myaka yabanjirije uko kongera kwaduka kw'intambara, FARDC n'ingabo z'u Rwanda (RDF) bari baragiye bakorana ibikorwa bya gisirikare bahuriyeho byo guhashya umutwe wa FDLR, mu 2019 byaniciwemo uwari umukuru wawo Sylvestre Mudacumura.

Uko intambara ishobora kurangira

Dr Moncrieff avuga ko kugira ngo intambara irangire hari icyo bisaba ku Rwanda, DRC, FDLR na M23.

Agira ati: "Irangira ry'intambara ricyeneye urukomatane rw'uko u Rwanda ruhava [ruhakura ingabo], ukwizeza umutekano u Rwanda bikozwe na Kinshasa ku bijyanye na FDLR no ku bijyanye n'ibindi bibazo byo mu burasirazuba bwa DRC n'isenywa rya M23 hamwe n'ikindi gishobora kuba kirimo uburyo bw'uko hari icyakorwa ku bayobozi bayo, ubu bafatiwe ibihano cyangwa bakaba barakatiwe igifungo kirekire cyangwa icy'urupfu muri DRC, ibyo bikaba bigaragara ko ari imbogamizi ku mahoro. Rero ibyo bintu bigomba kuganirwaho."

Uyu musesenguzi avuga ko ibihano bikomeye Amerika yafatiye ingabo z'u Rwanda na bamwe mu basirikare bo ku rwego rwo hejuru bazo, "kuri ubu ntitubona ingaruka n'imwe byagize ku ntwaro zigurishwa kuri RDF cyangwa kuri gahunda z'imyitozo kandi ndabizi ko kompanyi nini z'ibikomoka kuri peteroli zo mu burengerazuba [z'i Burayi n'Amerika] zashoboye kubona uburyo bwo gutuma zikomeza gukorana na RDF muri Mozambique". Gusa yongeraho ko "guhana igisirikare cyose ni ikintu urebye gitanga umusaruro w'igihe kirekire".

"Rero kuri ubu ingaruka si nini cyane ariko tugomba kwemera ko ari ikintu kidasanzwe na gato guhana igisirikare cyose."

Ibiganiro bya Doha bigeze he?

Nubwo Jacques Kongolo Bigirumwami, umujyanama wa Perezida Tshisekedi, yabwiye BBC ko umutwe wa M23 udakwiye kuba mu biganiro Perezida yemeye mu kwezi gushize byo ku rwego rw'igihugu, Dr Moncrieff we avuga ko "M23 ikwiye kuba mu biganiro byo ku rwego rw'igihugu ku rwego rw'uko isaba ibyo ku rwego rw'igihugu.

"Ariko imirwano mu burasirazuba [bwa DRC] ishobora gucyemurwa gusa hagati ya Kinshasa na Kigali kuko Kigali igenzura byuzuye kandi igaha amategeko byuzuye M23."

Ibiganiro by'amahoro biheruka kuba hagati ya leta ya DRC n'umutwe wa M23 ni ibyabereye i Montreux mu Busuwisi kuva ku itariki ya 17 kugeza ku ya 21 Kanama (8) uyu mwaka, byaje bikurikira ibyari byahabereye muri Mata (4) muri uyu mwaka.

Muri ibyo biganiro by'amahoro biherutse kuba, impande zombi zemeye ko ku wa mbere hazaterwa intambwe ya mbere yo kugenzura iyubahirizwa ry'agahenge i Minembwe mu ntara ya Kivu y'Epfo. Impande zombi zishinjwa kurashisha 'drones' muri ako gace gatuyemo n'abo mu bwoko bw'Abanyamulenge, ibirego zihakana.

Dr Moncrieff agira ati: "Ibirimo kuba nyirizina ku Banyamulenge birahangayikishije cyane.

"Nashimangira gusa ko bizagorana cyane gucyemura ibintu nk'ibyo – bishingira, ku gisubizo cyabyo cy'igihe kirekire [kirambye], ku mibanire myiza y'abaturage n'imibanire myiza hagati y'imiryango y'Abanye-Congo – mu koherezayo 'drones' no gushyigikira imitwe yitwaje intwaro ukoresha.

"Rero ntekereza ko Kigali na Kinshasa byombi birimo gukora ikosa rikomeye cyane mu gukoresha intwaro zo mu ntambara mu gucyemura ibibazo byo ku rwego rw'abaturage."

Dr Moncrieff avuga ko gahunda y'ubuhuza bwa Qatar yumva ko irimo kugana ku musozo "kuko Doha ntiyashoboye gutuma impande z'ingenzi ziri mu ntambara zitera intambwe ziva aho zihagaze [mu byo zisaba]", Doha ikaba ishaka gushyikiriza ubwo buhuza Ubusuwisi.