Monthly Outlook

The coming week looks unsettled at first, before high pressure builds to make the southern UK drier than the north through and beyond mid-month.

Temperatures will be above or at least near average for most of the time but under clear and calm interludes some rather chilly and foggy nights are possible.

Changeable and becoming cooler midweek

The weekend will become drier in most areas of the UK as high pressure builds across the south, and it will be warmer than normal for early October.

A few showers are possible, chiefly in northwestern areas, with some more widespread and heavier rain developing over western and northern Scotland on Sunday, along with strengthening winds. Parts of England and Wales will have overnight and early-morning fog patches but sunshine in many areas.

A similar pattern should linger through Monday and Tuesday, with rain or showers across Scotland and Northern Ireland, and stiff winds – at least on Monday.

Some of this rain might try to edge southwards, but much of England and Wales will have further dry and warm weather albeit potentially cloudier, with fog patches possible on clear and calm nights.

Around midweek, high pressure may become centred to the west or southwest, temporarily inducing cooler northeast to northwesterly flows, with temperatures closer to normal for the time of year.

This will also open the door to frontal systems, bringing periods of rain, some potentially heavy, especially in the northern and western UK, accompanied by occasionally strong winds. In between there will be brighter but showery and blustery interludes.

Driest in the south

The most probable pattern through mid-October is for high pressure to become more prominent at times, at least for the southern UK. Low pressure systems are likely to track near or northwest of the northern UK, occasionally dragging associated frontal systems across.

As a result, there will be wet and windy periods, especially across the northern UK, with showery interludes. Some rain may also edge farther south at times but overall the southern UK should be drier than the north, with rainfall amounts below normal compared to near or above normal in the north.

Winds should often be from the southwest and that will mean above-average temperatures, including mild nights, with limited opportunities for cooler intervals.

Across the southern UK, there could still be some particularly warm days. However, there is about a 20% risk that high pressure may remain anchored more to the west, which would bring a cooler result.

Potentially turning seasonably cooler

Although signals are rather mixed, a similar pattern could last into later October. High pressure may build at times near or across the UK, with a low pressure track farther north than usual for this time of year. As a result, overall precipitation amounts are most likely to be near or below average, but the northern UK may still be wetter than the south, especially Scotland.

Temperatures should mostly still be a little above the late October average. There may be higher chances of calm periods and therefore chilly nights, with overnight and morning fog patches.

By the turn of the month, high pressure might shift to the northeast. This could maintain the drier trend again, but potentially also lead to a slight cooling, with temperatures closer to normal. However, there is no sign yet of any risk of a notably cold outbreak.

There is a reasonable chance of an alternative outcome wherein high pressure shifts farther away, allowing low pressure systems closer to the UK, with a wetter and windier but mild outcome.

In Tuesday's update, we will see if there are any clearer indications of developments later in October.