Why conservative Texas is so important for Trumppublished at 17:54 GMT 3 November

17:54 GMT 3 November

Anthony Zurcher
North America correspondent

Image source, Getty Images

Two years ago, Trump won Lubbock, Texas, with 70% of the vote. It’s about as conservative as it gets.

The dusty plains city hosted duelling campaign rallies last week, with President Trump and Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico separated by just a few miles.

Thousands lined the roads around the airport to watch Air Force One land, and more gathered at a rally for Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton.

What I heard from Talarico’s supporters was a mixture of hope and dread.

The hope was that their candidate would be the first Democrat in more than three decades to win a state-wide race in Texas. The dread was that this would be just the latest example of Democratic optimism dashed.

Republican strategists I spoke with were clear-eyed about the challenge.

Perhaps their greatest concern is that if Democrats break through, Democratic efforts will turn to Texas ahead of the 2028 presidential election, forcing Republicans to defend what was safe terrain just a few years ago.

You can read more on this and the midterms in my US Politics Unspun newsletter.

Living costs are at the forefront of many voters' minds, with soaring US fuel prices the highest they've ever been on an election day.

"Diesel is the lifeblood of the economy," says Iowa farmer and Republican supporter Jack Smith.

His fellow farmer Tim Daly, who's leaning Democrat, says he's trying to keep his tractor's fuel consumption down by not making "trips across the field we don't need to take".

Jack tells the BBC he wishes the country felt less divided.

"I'm a lifelong Conservative but it would be nice if we lived among politicians who were statesmen", Jack says, adding that "everybody's so polarised, it's a sad state of affairs".

Tim adds: "I'm not happy, point blank, with what's going on. I guess I'm focusing on the farm economy. It's impacting my decision on who I will vote for."

Jack Gallop
Reporting from Des Moines, Iowa

Iowa is yet another state where a longstanding Republican stronghold is at risk.

Donald Trump has won the state comfortably in three straight presidential elections, and Iowans haven’t elected a Democratic Senator since 2008, nor have they elected a Democratic governor since 2007.

But President Trump’s tariffs have driven up costs for farmers in the state who rely on import products for their agriculture. The war in Iran has also hurt Iowans who are directly impacted by the rising price of diesel.

Image source, Getty Images

So who’s running?

For governor – Democrat Rob Sand, a former male model and Iowa’s state auditor, is up against Republican candidate Zach Lahn, a sixth-generation Iowan farmer who beat out a Trump-backed candidate to earn the nomination.

For US Senate – Democrat Josh Turek, a former Paralympian basketball star and current state representative, is running against former TV news host Ashley Hinson, a US Congresswoman since 2021.

Hinson was endorsed by President Trump but later criticised his decision to go to war with Iran. The race for Senator in Iowa could single-handedly shift the balance of power in Congress.

Image source, Getty Images

Three scenarios for how the results could unfoldpublished at 16:51 GMT 3 November

16:51 GMT 3 November

Anthony Zurcher
North America correspondent

Image source, AFP via Getty Images

In broad strokes, there are three possible outcomes after Americans have their say on election day:

1. A big Democratic wave

If history is any guide, midterm elections tend to favour the party not in power - in this case, the Democrats.

Add in what polls suggest is a historically unpopular president, a war with Iran that has driven up consumer costs and some controversial policies, you have the conditions for a so-called electoral wave.

Democrats could not only take control of the House of Representatives but far surpass the 218 seats needed for a majority.

In the Senate, this scenario would require Democrats to win all or most of the current crop of races that are toss-ups, including some in traditionally conservative states.

2. A Democratic trickle

Maybe the polls won't be entirely wrong, but not entirely right either.

In this scenario, it could be that while Democrats take enough of the low-hanging fruit in the US House contests to deliver a majority, it's not a sizeable one.

On the Senate side in this hypothetical, the Democrats would just flip a seat or two.

The result would be a divided Congress - a recipe for political gridlock.

3. A good night for Republicans

This scenario involves Republicans resiliently holding on to both chambers of Congress.

For this to happen, the polls - which have previously underestimated Trump's support - need to be wrong and the toss-up races to mostly fall the way of Republicans.

If this occurs, Trump might on Wednesday morning claim a renewed electoral mandate and push forward with his domestic and foreign policy agenda with the continued support of a Republican Congress.

Shaimaa Khalil
North America correspondent in Anchorage, Alaska

The fishermen we met in Seward tell me the political wrangling is a distraction.

For them, the stakes are closer to home: struggling salmon runs, rising costs of diesel and the future of fishing communities.

For Eric Clock who grew up fishing on the Yukon River and later fished commercially in Prince William Sound, the changes are deeply personal.

“It’s disheartening now to see that the fish camps aren’t there anymore,” he tells me, recalling families spending weeks catching the salmon they needed.

Financial pressures once forced him to leave his community in Cordova to find work.

“One year I made maybe $800 (£600) for the whole summer,” he says.

Another bitter dispute centres on bycatch, fish caught unintentionally in nets targeting other species.

Dakota Reynolds, a salmon fisherman we meet at the harbour, wants tougher restrictions on industrial fishing.

“It directly impacts my income,” he says.

For these fishermen and their communities, the question is who can protect their livelihoods.

Hanging over the election is another: how fiercely will the result be contested?

Shaimaa Khalil
North America correspondent in Anchorage, Alaska

Image source, Bloomberg via Getty Images

On the road from Anchorage to Seward, snow-capped mountains rise above still waters. Washington DC feels a world away.

But beneath that calm is a fiercely contested Senate race that could help decide who controls the chamber.

Polls have opened in this traditionally Republican state, where Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan have been running neck and neck. A clear result could take days, possibly weeks.

And the uncertainty goes beyond the count.

The race has been overshadowed by controversy, confusion and a legal battle over two men named Dan Sullivan: the incumbent senator and a retired teacher running as an independent.

In a final tele-rally, President Trump urged voters to “defeat corrupt Mary Peltola”, accusing her of recruiting the senator’s namesake to confuse voters. On Truth Social, he called the teacher a “fake Alaska candidate”.

Mary Peltola denies involvement.

The Trump administration sought to block the results if the Republican lost and votes for his namesake could have changed the outcome. A judge dismissed the case on Sunday. The Justice Department says it will appeal.

The FBI is separately investigating allegations that Democratic operatives recruited the teacher as a spoiler candidate.

Khashayar Joneidi
BBC Persian correspondent in Washington

While Americans debate how the Iran war might affect who wins in the midterm elections, Iranians are watching for a different reason: whether the results could bring another war closer or make diplomacy more likely.

But Iranians are divided over what outcome they want.

Many fear renewed fighting after months of conflict, economic hardship and uncertainty. Others, particularly opponents of the Islamic Republic, see continued US military pressure as a possible path to regime change.

Some worry that a Democratic takeover of Congress could constrain President Trump, reduce pressure on Tehran and diminish the prospects of political change.

Others hope Democratic gains could restrain further military action, although Congress has limited powers to prevent it.

And some Iranians oppose both the Islamic Republic and foreign intervention.

Image source, Getty Images

Polls have just opened in Alaska - one of the key states being watched because of its role in deciding who wins the Senate.

Republican Dan Sullivan's re-election bid is being challenged by Democrat Mary Peltola and independent candidate Daniel J Sullivan.

Stick with us for the latest news and analysis throughout the evening.

In it's final Senate rankings, the Cook Political Report moves Michigan from "toss-up" to "leans Democrat."

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan race.

On Sunday, El-Sayed's Democratic primary opponent, Haley Stevens, endorsed Rogers, in a shock move that drew condemnation from her own party.

Rachel Clun
Business reporter in New York

Image source, Getty Images

The cost of living has been on the minds of many Americans in the lead up to the midterms as prices for many staples have risen through the year.

People have been feeling the pinch of higher grocery prices, which are up 2.5% in the year to September, while overall inflation is up 3.7% over the same period.

Average hourly earnings have increased at a slower rate over the same period, rising by 3%, meaning people's wages are not keeping up with price increases.

Higher inflation has been driven largely by the US war with Iran, but also by the president's tariffs.

Vehicle fuel prices jumped by 34.2% over the year to September, and petrol and diesel prices have both hit fresh records this year as oil prices skyrocketed thanks to the war constraining supplies.

David Willis
Reporting from Los Angeles, California

Image source, Reuters

A short while ago, the polls opened in California, America's most populous state.

On Monday, the Supreme Court denied an emergency request by the Trump administration to intervene in a dispute over thousands of mail-in ballot papers which the administration claims were issued to non-citizens in the state.

Nearly 26 million people are registered to vote in California, a Democrat stronghold, and the state accounts for 52 seats in the House of Representatives, which the Democrats are hoping to tip in their favour.

Last year – in response to similar measures in some Republican states – voters approved a state-wide redistricting effort put forward by California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, and officials have since adjusted the maps of several congressional districts to make them more competitive for Democratic challengers.

As well as choosing a successor to Gavin Newsom, and determining the outcome of a tight race for LA's mayor, voters are being asked to consider more than a dozen other ballot measures, including a proposal for a one-time tax on billionaires to fund healthcare and education in the state.

Tom Bateman
Reporting from Columbus, Ohio

I’m outside a Lutheran church doubling as a polling station here in Columbus, Ohio, watching a steady stream of voters head in since we got here just after dawn.

Last night in a couple of hours' drive from here, in Toledo, Ohio, Vice-President JD Vance closed campaigning urging Republicans to get out to vote.

"Illegal communities of illegal immigrant Somalis... are co-ordinating to flood the polls and drown out your vote," he told the crowd that, but didn't cite any evidence for that claim which he said he had read in a "story".

One voter I just chatted to described a "real low" campaign here in Ohio that compelled her to come out. "It’s racist," she said, "our Somali community, we have businesses all around... they're contributing to our society".

Polls have just opened in Idaho, California, Oregon and Nevada.

The next 24 hours is a marathon, not a sprint, and results will start coming in later into the evening.

We'll continue to bring you the latest analysis and news, so stick with us.

Image source, NurPhoto via Getty Images

Earlier, we reported that officials in Florida had relocated polling stations due to flooding.

Other states have also been hit by heavy rains. In the early hours of the morning, officials in Utah said they'd issued an emergency order allowing voters in San Juan county to return their ballots electronically, should they be unable to travel because of the floods.

Governor Katie Hobbs declared a state of emergency in Arizona on Monday in response to storms and flash flooding, to ensure authorities had "the resources they need to clear roads, repair infrastructure, and help displaced residents".

Let's take a look at some of today's polling spots.

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Reuters

Officials in New York are reporting problems with ballot scanners in Westchester County, but add that votes will still be counted.

Westchester County Government says the issue involves paper ballots "preventing voting machines from accepting ballots at polling locations throughout the county".

However, it adds in a post on X that it wants to "reassure every voter that your vote matters, your ballot will be secure and your vote will be counted".

Westchester County Government says its board of elections is in "constant communication" with New York state officials to address the issue, and voters should continue to complete their paper ballots as instructed by poll workers.

Polls are continuing to open across the US, with polling stations opening at 9:00 ET (14:00 GMT) in Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming and Colorado.

Results will start coming in later this evening - stick with us for the latest news and analysis.

Image source, AP Photo

Bernd Debusmann Jr
White House reporter in Washington DC

Image source, AFP via Getty Images

It's an unusually quiet morning at the White House, where I'm one of only a very small handful of reporters currently here. Most will come in later today, and many members of the White House press corps are on the road.

President Trump, however, appears to be busy, posting endorsement after endorsement on Truth Social. A short time ago, he also phoned into Fox News for a brief telephone interview as Americans head to the polls.

In the interview, he made yet another pitch to voters and pointed to what he said were signs of economic progress under his administration, including an end to taxes on tips and overtime and foreign investment figures.

He also claimed he was in "total control" of the Middle East and Strait of Hormuz.

The president makes similar comments very frequently, but polls show that they have largely not resonated with American voters.

Polls have consistently shown that the economy is the single biggest driver for voters in this midterm, and that many Americans - including Republicans - have grown disenchanted with the administration's handling of the economy.

High prices are a particular concern, and many voters have pointed to the war in Iran as a reason.

On Fox, Trump dismissed these concerns, and expressed optimism about the midterm's results.

"We have indeed made America great again," he said.

The president has a number of events on his schedule today, including an election night reception in the east room of the White House. As things stand, every event he has planned today is closed to the press.

Image source, Getty Images

From fiery town halls in Maine to debate stages in California, these are the issues that kept coming up and seem likely to shape voters’ minds as they cast their ballots today:

• Cost of living: Many Americans have grown weary with the high energy prices, partly brought on by tariffs and the war with Iran, that are driving up costs on petrol and other everyday purchases
• Immigration: Republicans say Trump has delivered on his pledge to tighten the border as immigration numbers are down sharply since he took office. But some are worried that the crackdown has gone too far
• Iran war: The conflict became increasingly unpopular as its consequences reverberated around the world and ultimately hit American consumers in the pocket, though some voters praised Trump for taking decisive action against Iran

• Data centres: The strong public backlash against these centres in parts of the US is uniting voters from across the political spectrum, with both Republicans and Democrats coming out against their development
• Healthcare: Many Democratic candidates are focusing on the high costs of health insurance, with some making it central to their campaigns. Republicans, however, point to Trump's efforts to bring down the cost of prescription drugs

Polls have opened in the southern state of Arkansas at 08:30 eastern time (13:30 GMT).

Americans have been turning out at polling stations across the US east coast to cast their votes so far on Tuesday, with individual state governments deciding on what time their polls open.

Here's a reminder of the key states in these elections..